Declassamento del rating Italia: il rapporto Fitch

Capita spesso che  le disgrazie arrivino quando le cose vanno già male. Questa constatazione mi sembra perfettamente in linea con il giro di parole che Fitch usa per giustificare il suo downgrade dell'Italia: siccome dobbiamo pagare sempre più interessi sul debito (per convincere gli investitori a comprare) non si sa se riusciremo a pagare tutti i creditori e perciò diventiamo sempre più inaffidabili. 

Di sicuro non c'è niente di meglio per sprofondare sempre di più che un giudizio negativo: non ce la puoi fare, non ce la farai mai!

Per convincercene, la prossima volta proviamo ad incitare qualcuno con siffatte frasi (nostro figlio prima di un esame, un amico prima di un colloquio di lavoro, i giocatori della nostra squadra del cuore prima di una sfida), per vedere l'effetto che sortiscono. E' pur vero che, a volte, riescono a stimolare la volontà di farcela, agendo quasi da pedana elastica, una volta toccato il fondo. Però non si sa sempre quand'è che si è toccato il fondo. E poi, non è solo sulla nostra volontà di farcela che si deve contare, ma anche sul giudizio che il mercato dà di noi. Intanto, per chi fosse curioso, ecco il rapporto di Fitch sull'Italia.

   Fitch Comments Further on Downgrade of Italy to 'A-'; Outlook Negative   27 Jan 2012 1:20 PM (EST)

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Fitch Ratings-London-27 January 2012: Fitch Ratings is providing further comment on the rating actions it took earlier today on the Italian Republic (Italy), where its long-term issuer default rating (IDR) was downgraded to 'A-' from 'A+'; Negative Outlook; and its short-term IDR was downgraded to 'F2' from 'F1'.The downgrade follows the Rating Watch Negative (RWN) placed on the sovereign ratings of Italy and five other Euro Area Member States (EAMS) on 16 December 2011. The RWN was initiated in response to concern over the lack of clarity on the ultimate structure of a fundamentally reformed Economic and Monetary Union; the risk of self-fulfilling liquidity and even solvency crises in the absence of a fully-credible financial 'firewall' against contagion; and the significant negative external shock to the region's economy from the prolonged nature of the Eurozone systemic crisis.
The two-notch downgrade of Italy's sovereign ratings primarily reflects two factors:
- a re-assessment by Fitch of the potential financing and monetary shocks that members of the Eurozone face in light of the increasing divergence in economic, monetary and credit conditions and prospects across the region, which is also a factor in the downgrades of some other Eurozone sovereign governments;
- a permanent upward shift in Italy's relative cost of fiscal funding and consequently an increase in the interest rate growth differential with adverse implications for long-run public debt dynamics.
The factors that have prompted the downgrade reflect the systemic nature of the Eurozone crisis that Italy's high public debt and low potential growth rate have rendered it especially vulnerable to. A more severe rating action was forestalled by the strong commitment of the Italian government to reducing the budget deficit and to implementing structural reform as well as the significant easing of near-term financing risks as a result of the ECB's 3-year Longer-term Refinancing Operation (LTRO).
The intensification of the Eurozone crisis in the latter part of last year and the funding stress faced by the Italian government and financial sector, albeit since eased by the LTRO, highlight the continuing risks posed by the absence of a fully credible framework for providing financial support to solvent but potentially illiquid sovereigns. Moreover, the divergence in monetary and credit conditions across the Eurozone and near-term economic outlook highlight the greater vulnerability to monetary as well as financing shocks faced by Euro Area sovereign governments. One notch of the two-notch downgrade of Italy reflects this systemic weakness that only more fundamental reform of Economic and Monetary Union can address.

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